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Document Details : Title: Scenario Analysis for a Multi-Period Diffusion Model of Risk Author(s): MALINOVSKII, Vsevolod K. Journal: ASTIN Bulletin Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Date: 2009 Pages: 649-676 DOI: 10.2143/AST.39.2.2044652 Abstract : This paper extends and develops the results of a previous paper Malinovskii (2007). Dealing with a simplistic diffusion multi-year model of insurance operations, this paper illustrates the adaptive control approach when the object of control is the balance of solvency and equity. Compared to the previous paper, a new element is the “scenario of nature”, or the incomplete knowledge of future risk, which is quite often the case in insurance. It introduces a new and inevitable randomness in the model and leads to a qualitative difference in its behavior. |