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Document Details : Title: Predicting IBNYR Events and Delays Subtitle: II. Discrete Time Author(s): JEWELL, William S. Journal: ASTIN Bulletin Volume: 20 Issue: 1 Date: April 1990 Pages: 93-111 DOI: 10.2143/AST.20.1.2005486 Abstract : An IBNYR event is one that occurs randomly during some fixed exposure interval and incurs a random delay before it is reported. A previous paper developed a continuous-time model of the IBNYR process in which both the Poisson rate at which events occur and the parameters of the delay distribution are unknown random quantities; a full-distributional Bayesian method was then developed to predict the number of unreported events. Using a numerical example, the success of this approach was shown to depend upon whether or not the occurrence dates were avadable in addition to the reporting dates. This paper considers the more usual practical situation in which only discretized epoch reformation is available, this leads to a loss of predictive accuracy, which is investigated by considering various levels of quantization for the same numerical example. |
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